Effectiveness in Population Reduction
In December 2013, the population of China was about 1.361 billion people, which shows a 140% growth since the population of 972 million people back in 1979. While in China the one-child policy is repeatedly being promoted and loosened all still in the purpose of reducing population and mitigating its impacts, India stands in a similar position in this battle against overpopulation. India's population in 1979 was 671 million, which grew to 1.237 billion by December 2013; this shows a 184% growth in population over the same time period. Although presently China stands as the most populous country in the world, India is following right behind and close - by most estimates India is expected to surpass the PRC in its position by 2027 or earlier.
Of course, the shift of position may not necessarily imply that the one-child policy or any of China's other efforts in reducing population has achieved success, as by 2027 both countries will be predicted to reach around 1.4 billion anyway, experts also foretell that, presuming that the one-child policy remains as it is currently, China will, surprisingly, be able to attain zero population growth by 2025 and -0.5% population growth rate by 2050. The summit of population in the recent future is expected to be reached at 1.46 billion by the year 2030, then declining by more than an entire hundred million years by the year 2050.
Of course, the shift of position may not necessarily imply that the one-child policy or any of China's other efforts in reducing population has achieved success, as by 2027 both countries will be predicted to reach around 1.4 billion anyway, experts also foretell that, presuming that the one-child policy remains as it is currently, China will, surprisingly, be able to attain zero population growth by 2025 and -0.5% population growth rate by 2050. The summit of population in the recent future is expected to be reached at 1.46 billion by the year 2030, then declining by more than an entire hundred million years by the year 2050.
video: World Business Explains China's population problems
Towards a More Balanced Nation
There has been quite an amount of controversy that arose from the recent addition to the list of types of families eligible to have two youngsters just early November, 2013; couples in which at least one partner is a single child are granted the birth and registration of a second child. As 15 million to 20 million Chinese parents were instantly allowed to give their child a new sibling, much of the China sank back into the reality that their country was, in fact, very largely overpopulated and pondered again whether or not they were in favor of this update. After all, even after more than 30 years of resisting the one-child policy and seeing the harms and damages it has created, the people were not delusional towards its sole purpose of population control. What were to become of China’s demographics, then?
However, experts have revealed that a baby boom will not result from this seemingly major relaxation of the one-child policy.
However, experts have revealed that a baby boom will not result from this seemingly major relaxation of the one-child policy.
“A baby boom can be safely ruled out…Young people’s reproductive desires have changed.”
Wang Feng, professor of sociology at the University of California Irvine
This phenomenon can be explained by Wang’s observations on how previously more than half of the Chinese couples where both parents have no siblings - an already long-established exception of the policy - had elected not to have a second child. These findings are based on pilot programs in Shanghai and nearby Jiangsu province.
“No way will I have another child. There are so many pressures in life in today’s society, and our children will only face more pressures.”
Xia, eligible father of a second child, in his late thirties
“I am so busy with one child, I can’t imagine taking care of two children, and I’m spending about $490 to $655 a month on [my young son] for kindergarten, clothes, activities. It is not possible.”
Feng Zhilan, eligible mother of a second child, 32 years old
Hearing the words of modern parents, Wang’s claim on the “changed reproductive desires of young people” can be supported. It is apparent that there now exists a growing acceptance of small families, as opposed to the traditional belief spread by Chairman Mao Zedong back in the 1940s and 50s. As the monetary effects of overpopulation are naturally integrated into the Chinese society, providing education and child support become for your own children becomes difficult - not just because of unemployment and low wages, but also the skyrocketing prices of living. |
Certainly families who are not subject to or are not concerned about such will remain and rejoice at the change in restrictions, but fortunately for the country they are proven to be ones of the few. Demographers and experts such as Wang Feng have concurred with the expectation of an increase of annual births by around 1 million to 2 million.
It’s true that these 1 to 2 million human beings brought to China additionally each year only contribute to the increasing population in an insidious fashion, and plus, they don’t eliminate the demographic concerns and disagreements lurking in the country, but this should be a major step in permitting the rightful reproductive rights to the people.
While before, rebels disregarded the policy and mostly suffered from severe, harsh punishments, now the majority of parents are choosing not to have a second child. The previous distorted views towards having children or not having children are now being slowly balanced out with this return of reproductive rights to the people as now a new, non-compulsory rejection of large families exists among the minds of the larger portion of the population.
“The significance of this is that it is the beginning of what I would expect to be a very speedy abolishment of the policy overall. China is testing the water now.”
Wang Feng, professor of sociology at the University of California Irvine
Whether or not the government intended such a positive outcome, with the cooperation of the people, this abolishment would happen, given time, but only because it will no longer be needed in a better country.
Demographic Graying
The future which China faces as a result of the one-child policy is one where senior citizens make up most of the population. This is a process known as demographic graying, mainly caused by the 4-2-1 effect. The motivation behind implementing the policy had been, in the first place, to aid China's economic effect. Ironically, over a longer period of time, it may have the opposite of the desired effect.
video: China's Aging population
See more about present societal views and values in Impacts on the Society
See more about Chinese individual life in Impacts on a Citizen
See more about Chinese individual life in Impacts on a Citizen